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“The only thing necessary for these diseases to the triumph is for good people and governments to do nothing.”

 

Research Reports

We offer a monthly newsletter dealing with the various issues surrounding infectious diseases.  To find out more click HERE.

Main topics can be found within the left column; sub-topics and/or research reports can be found near the bottom of this page.  Thank you

Document Name & Link to Document

Description

File Size /Type

2007 Surveillance Report

 (Large report-increase download time)

In 1981, the first cases of AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Since that time, the HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) epidemic has expanded to become one of the greatest public health challenges, both nationally and globally. More than 25 years after the first reports of AIDS, this issue of the HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report marks the reporting of more than 1 million AIDS cases since the beginning of the epidemic in the United States. The number of cases underscores the fact that despite significant advances in HIV testing, prevention, and treatment in the United States, the human toll has been substantial. Pdf 3472 kb
A Critical Reappraisal of African AIDS Research and Western Sexual Stereotypes The paper scrutinizes the predictions of increased numbers of HIV cases in southern Africa by reviewing comparative studies from other parts of Africa to show how conceptual flaws and dubious statistics mar conventional studies about AIDS in Africa. It suggests that western stereotypes, poorly designed research, medical authoritarianism and racist assumptions about African sexuality created the untenable conclusions about AIDS in other African countries that now proliferate in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana.  
ADDENDUM TO ASSA600: AN AIDS MODEL OF THE THIRD KIND? Since the above paper was published before, inter alia, the release of the 1996 Census results and an "AIDS Experts" workshop organised by the Department of Health it does not describe the changes made to the model to incorporate insights that resulted from these sources of data.  It is the purpose of this addendum to document the changes to the model made since the publication of the original paper  
ADULT MORTALITY IN THE ERA OF HIV/AIDS: THE ARAB COUNTRIES OF WESTERN ASIA AND NORTHERN AFRICA This paper reviews recent levels and trends in mortality conditions and the possible impact of AIDS in the Arab region of West Asia and North Africa. Twenty two countries/territories are considered in this study: 12 in Western Asia (Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Occupied Palestinian territory, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen), and 6 in Northern Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia). To complete the picture of the mortality transition in the Arab region, 4 more countries are included in the analysis, 3 in Eastern Africa (Comoros, Djibouti and Somalia), and one in Western Africa (Mauritania). Pdf 997 kb
AIDS Projection Models

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Demographic and epidemiological models for projecting HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality

A Minimalist Demographic-Epidemiological Model for Projecting HIV/AIDS

 

Introduction

A Bare Bones Model

Model Design

Program Design

Application to Uganda: Inputs

Application to Uganda: Results

Discussion

Reference

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ADULT MORTALITY AND AIDS DEATHS IN ZIMBABWE

Prepared for the Meeting of the Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimates, Modeling and Projections

 

Age- & sex-structured HIV epidemiological  model. Presented is a novel model for forecasting HIV incidence by age and sex and among sentinel groups for which data are available.  This approach permits a closer relationship between forecasting and surveillance activities, and more accurate estimates validated to data. 1,265 kb pdf
Age-Period-Cohort models: Statistical inference in the Lexis diagram Age-period cohort models for multiple datasets When several sets of rates are observed in a Lexis diagram it is of course possible to fit separate age-period-cohort models for each set of rates. But depending on the context di_erent approaches to modelling will be appropriate: Pdf 739 kb
AIDS and demographic consequences. In many countries AIDS is already a major cause of death, and it will soon become so in many others.  Particularly in countries of the less-developed regions, AIDS may have a visible demographic impact in both the short and long term that will affect the size of future population increments, the relative size of different age groups and family structures. 9,540 kb pdf
AIDS and Stiigma-1999 Survey Items. The following pages report exact wording for some of some of the items used in a 1999 national telephone survey on AIDS and stigma.  Many of the items were also used in previous surveys conducted by the author in 1991 and 1997. 104 kb pdf

AIDS Fact Sheet

Peer Review Status: Internally Reviewed by Cancer Center Staff

 

ASSA AIDS and Demographic Models

(Large report-increased down-load time)

This guide begins with an overview of modelling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa, which is presented in section 2. Section 3 provides information on the structure of the model. It comprises a brief description of the nature and basis of the assumptions, the location of different aspects of the model on the worksheets, and information about which assumptions and values can be changed by the user. Sections 4, 5 and 6 provide instructions on how to use the model. Section 4 describes how to do simple runs so as to get projections for different years. Section 5 describes the standard output, how to interpret it, and how to obtain additional output. Section 6 provides a brief overview of the provincial and urban-rural versions of the model. Finally, section 7 provides information for the more advanced user who wants to change parameters. This section includes a discussion of the calibration that is necessary when making such changes.   
Bangui definition for HIV/AIDS

AIDS surveillance in Europe.

 

Bangui 1985 report.

 

CDC Guidelines for Surveillance 1999.

 

Concept of Health & Disease.

 

 

Current Trends Update-1982.

 

Surveillance Case Definition for AIDS-1993.

 

WHO Definitions for AIDS surrveilance-1986.

 

WHO Definitions for AIDS surveillance 1994.

 

WHO Definitions for AIDS surveillance-1988

This model/definition has been used and is still being utilized by many countries.  Many countries simply do not have the financial resources to obtain the most modern methods for testing for HIV/AIDS

A case of AIDS in a child is defined as an illness characterized by one or more of the following ‘indicator’ diseases

Good clinical definitions of AIDS is of great importance in Africa, where adequate laboratory facilities are often lacking, to enable medical practitioners to arrive at a diagnosis with maximum precision.  In the absence of such lab testing abilities, the use of symptoms exhibited by patients can also be used

This report provides a revised case definition for HIV infection in adults and children, recommended program surveillance by local, state, and territorial health departments.

This set of definitions and commitments, universally accepted as normative, has posed, to those who work in the health field, limitations on the theoretical and methodological bases traditionally utilized and has shown the need for new developments, that make it possible to treat the health and disease problem as an expression of the living conditions of different population groups and to understand the relationship between these and the most general social processes.

The eventual case-mortality rate of AIDS, a few years after diagnosis, may be far greater than the 41% overall case-mortality rate noted

Revised HIV classification system for adolescents and adults

For surveillance purposed, a relatively precise case definition is required that includes the most characteristic manifestations of LAV/HTLV-III infections.

The clinical and laboratory definition of AIDS has changed as documentation of the wide spectrum of clinical manifestations due to HIV has accumulated, and as specific laboratory tests to detect HIV infection and immune deficiency have been developed

This is a method in which the prevalence of HIV infection is measured in specific populations whose blood has been obtained in the health care setting for other purposes and then tested for antibody to HIV after all patient identifiers have been removed

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Better Searching Through Science Now, a handful of companies and academic researchers are working on a new breed of search engines to undo this second curse of Babel.   
Can the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Predict Post-Transplantation Can indicators of liver disease severity before liver transplantation (OLT) predict the outcome following OLT? Can pretransplant data predict post-OLT outcomes? The researchers compared three indices of liver disease severity as predictors of posttransplant outcome:  

Case for increasing availability of HIV/AIDS products through improved Supply Chain Management

Over the last fifteen years, evidence has shown that the right programmatic approaches, applied quickly and thoroughly, can result in lower HIV infection rates and a higher quality of life for those affected by the AIDS epidemic.  We have also learned that a strong supply chain is critical to the success of any effective HIV/AIDS program

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Chronic Diseases in Canada Magazine from Canada that deals with chronic diseases, also provides some math models 838 kb pdf
Considerations and Recommendations in Undertaking Population Projections for South Africa Intended to Assess the Impact and Consequences of HIV / AIDS This paper discusses the use of population projections for South Africa in estimating the future demographic impact of HIV/AIDS. These issues raised apply to projections generally and to projections of the impact of HIV/AIDS in other countries. A focus of this paper is examination of the assumptions underlying projections and assessment of the robustness of the projections to violations of these assumptions. Pdf  516 kb
Dead reckoning - the need for data on mortality rates in Africa What do we know about mortality rates in Africa? How has HIV affected death rates? Do we have enough data to answer these questions? Research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine investigates mortality rates in Africa. More and better demographic data are essential to help governments develop policy in response to the HIV epidemic.  
Debunking the Myths in the US Global AIDS strategy-an evidence-based analysis Women and girls represent the majority of those infected with HIV worldwide and two-thirds of those in sub-Saharan Africa…new infections are rising most rapidly among married women and adolescent girls, as well as among those sub-populations, including sex workers and men who have sex with men, who face the highest levels of social marginalization due to widespread stigma and discrimination 435 kb pdf
DECISION AND COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS Decision-Tree methodology: Discounting is the method to adjust future health outcomes and costs to their value in the present. Value in the present is called “net present value”, or NPV. This technique has long been used to represent time preference for costs. Recently a consensus has been reached to discount health outcomes. Not doing so leads to some logical conundrums in CEAs. On average people exhibit time preferences for health outcomes similar to those for costs.  

Demography and Ecology as a Field of Study

 

PowerPoint Presentation-Demography is the study of the size, territorial distribution,, and composition of population, changes therein, and components of such changes as mortality, natality, territorial movement, and social mobility 96 kb
Developing a Methodology for Cost-Benefit Analysis of GFATM Power Point Presentation 176 kb
Discrepancies Between Men and Women in

This paper examines the reliability of one key type of sexual behavior by comparing reports of the number of opposite gender sex partners reported by men and women. Within a closed population, the number of female sexual partners reported by men must equal the number of male sexual partners reported by women. Thus, agreement between men and women validates the aggregate reports and suggests that the reports are reliable. Discrepancies on the other hand indicate either a deviation from the closed population assumption or some inaccuracy in the data for one or both genders (Gorman,1989).

 

Editnote

Notes on Census Editing

87 kb pdf

Emerging Infectious Diseases: Tracking trends and analyzing new and reemerging infectious disease issues around the world

(Large Report-Increase download time)

An examination of the threat of Bio-terrorism 3872 kb pdf
Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa South Africa is recorded to have the largest number of persons living with HIV/AIDS in the world…The data are collected from pregnant women who attend antenatal clinics in the public health sector. 164 kb pdf
Estimation and projections-AIDS simple model. WHO has developed a smiple model for short-term projections of AIDS, details of which are presented here along with results obtained using the model to estimate and project AIDS cases for the USA, etc. 2,334 kb pdf

Estimating Future Hepatitis C Morbidity, Mortality, and Cost in the United States

From the year 2010 through 2019, our model project 165,900 deaths from chronic liver disease, 27,200 deaths from hepatocellular carcinoma, and 510.7 billion in direct medical expenditures from Hepatitis C Virus

133 kb pdf

Global surveillance and forecasting of AIDS. The short-term forecasting of future AIDS cases has been attempted by statistical extrapolations of the observed curve of reported AIDS cases.  In areas where such reporting is very incomplete or has only recently started, extrapolation is not possible and an epidemiologically-based forecasting model has been developed to estimate the annual number of AIDS cases which may have occurred and to project the annual number and distribution of AIDS cases for up to ten years. 1,276 kb pdf
HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa: Background, Projections, Impacts, and Interventions The virus that causes AIDS has already infected and is infecting many Africans.  About 20 percent of the entire adult population aged 15-49 is currently infected in nine southern African countries.  This is a staggering level, and most of these people do not even know they are infected…and the disease threatens the social and economic well being of the countries. 242 kb pdf
HIV/AIDS Toolkit: AIDS IMPACT MODEL (AIM) APPROACH Building Political Commitment for Effective HIV/AIDS Policies and Programs 774 kb pdf
HIV/STD Prevalence and Risk Factors among Migrant & non-migrant Males-Nepal
International evidence indicates that since 
migration brings about immediate changes
 in the occupation, social condition and economic 
status of the people, it could be one of the leading 
factors linked to high-risk sexual behavior and 
STI/HIV transmission. 
1604 kb pdf
HIV AND MORTALITY IN AFRICA Does it prove that HIV causes AIDS? In a British-funded study, it was found that mortality in young (13-44) adults in Uganda is 60 times higher for HIV-seropositives than for seronegatives. Mainstream AIDS scientist present these results as a strong evidence that HIV is the cause of AIDS. Such arguments are very persuasive to public and most scientists, even though being essentially flawed.  
Human Capacity for Logistics HIV/AIDS is placing a heavy burden on the health sector, both in terms of health worker attrition and increased patient needs at health facilities because of HIV/AIDS-related illness.  These and other stresses on human capacity—such as the brain drain, insufficient remuneration, and lack of knowledge and skills updates for staff—affect the performance of logistics systems 542 kb pdf

Inestppr - Indirect Estimation of period Parity Progression Ratios from Time Series of Births Distributed by Order

Indirect estimation procedure

24 kb pdf

Instructions for Goals Model

 

 

Key Issues This section provides brief summaries of current research related to HIV/AIDS,  particularly in low-resource settings. Because a wealth of high-quality HIV/AIDS information is available through other online resources, we encourage readers to review the resources  

Lexis Diagrams

Represent relationships between sets of persons and events

66 kb pdf

Literature Review of Long-Term Mortality Projections Predicting life expectancy 75 years into the future today is equivalent to having a forecaster in 1928 predict life expectancy for 2004.  The most accurate prediction about such a forecast is probably that it will be wrong. 159 kb pdf
Macroeconomic Models of the Impact of HIV/AIDS Major differences of opinion are emerging in assessments of the socio-economic impact of HIV/AIDS in heavily affected countries between the experiences of those who are devising practical responses to the pandemic, and forecasts based on macroeconomic modeling. 176 kb pdf
Making HIV prevalence & AIDS estimates Power Point Presentation 1.964 kb
Methods Protocol for the Human Mortality Database Methods to use for determining a mortality databank-death rates 559 kb pdf
MISLEADING IMPRESSION-AIDS Fight is Skewed by Federal Campaign Exaggerating Risks Research continued to show that AIDS among heterosexuals had largely settled into an inner-city nexus, a world bounded by poverty and poor health care and beset by rampant drug use. AIDS was also on the rise in some poor rural communities. Yet government ads typically didn't address the heterosexual group at greatest risk, a group that a CDC researcher would later define as "generally young, minority, indigent women who use 'crack' cocaine, have multiple sex partners, trade sex for 'crack' or other drugs or money, and have [other sexually transmitted diseases] such as syphilis and herpes."  
Model-based estimates of risk of disease transmission and economic costs of 7 injection devices When not properly sterilized, or if contaminated, needles and syringes can produce local abscesses and can transmit bloodborne infections between patients.  Needlestick injuries can transmit infectious agents from patients to health care workers, while incorrect disposal can transmit disease to the community as a consequence of both needlestick injuries and improper reuse. 360 kb pdf
Modeling HIV/AIDS epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa using seroprevalence data from antenatal clinics To plan and evaluate control strategies effectively and to prepare for vaccine efficacy trials, it is critical to estimate the magnitude and trajectory of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.  Trade-offs between alternative interventions and policies must be based on the best possible information about current levels and trends in the epidemic. 384 kb pdf

MORTALITY AND AIDS DEATHS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Prepared for the Meeting of the Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimates, Modelling and Projections, Geneva, 10-11, June 1999. Sections 1-6 present some essential background. Section 7 lists some issues for discussion at the meeting, incorporating the suggestions contained in emails of April 9 from Bernhard  

 

Mortality Tempo: A Guide for the Skeptic

 

This paper develops a discrete approach to describing and analyzing mortality tempo effects. The continuous mathematics of Bongaarts and Feeney (1998, 2002, 2003) tends to obscure what are at heart quite simple ideas. The discrete approach is mathematically undemanding, yet powerful. It is used here, for example, to define age-specific tempo effects, something that has yet to be done in the continuous formulation. Pdf 65 kb

Multdecr

Multiple Decrement Theory

60 kb pdf

Opr95

The Analysis of Children Ever Born Data for Post-Reproductive Age Women

136 kb pdf

Pfnote

A new Interpretation of Brass’ P/F Ration Method Applicable When Fertility is Declining

18 kb pdf

Populations, pathogens, and epidemic phases: closing the gap between theory and practice in the prevention of sexually transmitted diseases In the past two decades, there has been a substantial increase in theoretical knowledge about the transmission dynamics of sexually transmitted infections.  This has largely been motivated by the global epidemic of HIV and the vigorous efforts to reduce the burden of other STIs, and has been facilitated by the emergence of new methods and technologies for data analysis and mathematical modeling. 155 kb pdf
Potential Costs and Benefits of Responding to the Mobility Aspect of the HIV Epidemic in South East Asia This paper presents a methodology to estimate the costs and potential benefits of responding to the mobility aspects of the HIV epidemic in South East Asia.  One of the steps in strengthening the countries’ capabilities for appropriate policy and programmatic decisions in resource allocation for HIV/AIDS programmes to reduce mobility related HIV vulnerability, it is important to have costing information on responses, or lack thereof, to mobility related factors in HIV prevention & mitigation of the impact of AIDS 1098 kb pdf
Poverty and Labour Market Markers of HIV+ Households: An Exploratory Methodological Analysis This study, through an exploratory but promising methodology, provides a tentative analysis of the relationship between HIV, poverty and labour markets.  The paper illustrates that the relationship between poverty, labour markets and HIV is not homogenous but multi-dimensional in character.  The analysis examines these inter-relationships at both the household and individual level.  The key findings from the analysis suggest that imputed HIV positive women come from poorer households than imputed negative women Pdf 959 kb
Preventing and Mitigating AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: Research and Data Priorities for the Social and Behavioral Sciences Moreover, given the chronic underreporting and under-diagnosis in developing countries, the actual number of AIDS cases may be four times as high. The official statistics also do not reflect the millions of people who are infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) but have yet to develop symptoms of AIDS  
Probability Tables for disability Mathematical descriptions and methods used for determining the probability of disability used by the Rand corporation 230 kb pdf
Reference Group on HIV/AIDS Estimated, Modeling and Projection-1999 Estimates of the number of people living with HIV and the burden of HIV-related sickness and death rely heavily on data generated by sentinel surveillance systems 28 kb pdf
Researchers fake AIDS study data Three Maryland researchers have admitted fabricating interviews with teenagers for a study on AIDS prevention that received more than $1 million in federal funds.  

Scientific Fraud and Conflict Of Interest In Vaccine Research, Licensing &
Policymaking

In Business School, (Organizational Behavior) we studied what can happen to organizations that suffer ethical management breakdowns (such as Johns Manville with asbestos, Owens Corning breast implants, etc.). Nothing illustrates the syndrome of management ethical failure more clearly than the current scandal faced by Firestone and Ford. Those companies denied and concealed deaths and injuries caused by tread separation and a high center of gravity in the Ford Explorer for years. Management knew, denied and concealed that their products were defective and were killing people -- the classic ethical breakdown. 
 

 

SINGLE- AND MULTI-MOTIVE PROCESSING

This study considers the impact of behavioral commitment on the cognitive and affective processing of a persuasive message advocating influenza vaccination behaviors, and the resulting impact on the integration of information into attitudes, behavioral intention, and behavior. It was argued that prior behavior commitments would lead some processors to engage in concurrent validity-seeking and defensive processing.

 

Statistical methods in epidemic modelling The main focus of this research programme has concerned the development and application of statistical methodology to estimate the characteristics and evolution of epidemics, in particular those caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). The main progress relates to: the development and application of methods to estimate prevailing and future disease prevalence (often at different disease stages) and incidence using information from a variety of sources; the characterisation of disease progression, and the factors affecting it, through the analysis of longitudinal data on disease markers collected in observational cohort studies, accounting for the bias inherent in such studies  
THE BLACK DEATH AND ITS EFFECT ON THE HISTORY AND SOCIALIZATION OF THE WESTERN WORLD The Black Death of 1346 - 1348 and its relation to historical change is not one of direct cause but of contributory effect.  The disease helped cause historic and social change, but the change (especially in economic systems) was not initiated by the historical event known as the Black Death but accelerated by it.  
The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS The Technical Meeting on the Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS was held to discuss current approaches and future research needs for estimating the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS.  AIDS has become one of the biggest challenges to development in the coming decades. 251 kb pdf
The Globalization of Disease Annan warned that AIDS leaches profits out of economies and businesses and raises new barriers to development and economic growth. He cautioned that the widening gaps between wealthy and poor, which AIDS and other diseases are expanding, could accelerate the growing backlash against globalization. While global markets have created unprecedented economic opportunities and growth, the benefits have not been equally distributed, and the risks—especially the health risks—of an increasingly interlinked and interdependent world have not been thoroughly considered.  
The Impact of AIDS on adult mortality: evidence from national and regional statistics The object of this review is to consider what effect AIDS is having on adult mortality in some of the countries most seriously affected by the epidemic, using public data sources, such as censuses and nationally representative surveys that do not offer a breakdown of the population by HIV status 103 kb pdf
The Wedding of Qualitative Research and Public Health Policy I want to begin with two marvelous jokes by Professor Pan Suiming. “The Prostitute says to her customer, ‘Move your head, I am watching TV.’  A family of three was talking about prostitution. The husband said, ‘One act with a prostitute in some city is worth three years salary.’  The wife immediately responded,  ‘Then, never visit a prostitute.’ The daughter unexpectedly said, ‘I should do this work.’ (Pan Suiming in Gail Hershatter 1997:392). I open with this quote from Pan Suiming because it captures some of generational attitudes and economic incentives for sex work within contemporary China.   

The Vincent-El Badry Method

In many past censuses enumerators have frequently omitted to record "0" for childless women, leaving the space on the census schedule blank or perhaps recording a dash. The census records will then show these women as having not responded to the question on number of children ever born (CEB), rather than as having no children. This creates a downward bias in reported proportions of childless women and a corresponding upward bias in reported proportions of women with one or more children ever born and in mean number of children ever born.

 

Vital Statistics - Leading Causes of Premature Death, 1999-2003 Charts of the leading causes of premature death Pdf 38 kb
Trends in under-5 mortality rates and the HIV/AIDS epidemic Although HIV and AIDS originally emerged as adult health problems, they have become a major killer of under-5-year-old children, especially in developing countries.  Children of HIV-seropositive mothers can acquire the virus directly through vertical transmission; about 25-30% of children born to infected mothers become infected with HIV and almost all of them die before 5 years of age in most developing countries with high HIV prevalence 240 kb pdf
Use of Maternity Register Data in Benin. The guideline emphasize the importance of using this series of indicators as a means of monitoring service availability, utilization of maternal health services, utilization of these services among those in need and quality of obstetric care. 630 kb pdf
Use of Single Data Source Can Significantly Underestimate Hepatitis C Mortality Rates Power Point Presentation 86 kb pdf

Validity of scales measuring the psychosocialdeterminants of HIV/STD-related risk behavior inadolescents

We examined the content, construct and concurrent validity of scales to assess beliefs and self-efficacy related to adolescents' sexual risk behavior. We addressed content validity in the scale development process by drawing on literature and theory, and by pre-testing items with focus groups.

 

Web site for Futures Group Listing for http://www.tfgi.com/ Software: computer math models  

What Is Demographic Analysis?

Demography is the study of population change in human societies, of the life cycle events that generate this change, and of the various factors and circumstances that influence these events.

 

Working in Groups

Contents

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Benefits and methods of working in groups—HIV and AIDS usually raise difficult and personal issues such as health, relationships, financial security, death or feelings about sexuality.

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World Population data sheet of the Population reference Bureau-2004 For the first time, the United Nations has produced a time series for the country estimates of HIV/AIDS prevalence. 371 kb pdf